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TRUMP AS A BLACK SWAN
  Karl Arnold Belser
11 November 2016



I was completely blind sided by Donald Trump becoming the president elect of the United States. I want to briefly write down what I thought and what the result tells me.

I voted for Hillary Clinton, who I knew perfectly well was a crook. I wanted business as usual. I felt that Trumps possible actions might be dangerous to the nation and to my financial security..

Further I am a Republican and I like much of the Republican agenda except for the undermining of women's rights. For example a Republican religious right government might try to reverse the 1973 Roe V Wade Supreme Court decision. I felt that Clinton could not do any real damage as long as the Congress was Republican.

I actually thought that the Democratic Party was taking over the US government and that the Republican party had disintegrated. I did know that about two thirds of the US population was so poor that they couldn't raise $400 to handle an emergency. I figured that the financial situation of the US would get much worse and cause a crisis that would cause the government to change, but not now. I just didn't realize how serious the situation was.

What did I learn?

I learned that there is now ubiquitous confusion. The media and the forecasters are baffled about how they could have been so wrong.. Many people are trying to readjust their investments to take advantage of what Trump might do. I am just holding tight until the dust settles. The future is really uncertain.

What do I hope will happen?

1. I hope that the distortions caused by political correctness will change or be eliminated.

I observe that when the Democrats (Hillary) say that they want to do the right thing they essentially mean to do the politically correct thing. I consider political correctness to be institutionalized lying that is reinforced by social proof, not fact. For example, I  think that the primary upset with the general poor population is that the government is giving special benefits to immigrants, women and minorities at their expense. many poor people are in my opinion justifiably upset.

2. I hope that the republicans drastically reduce regulations so that small business can form.

Currently the birth rate of new businesses is very low (Bureau of Labor Statistics). I believe that this fact is due to over regulation by the federal government. It is new businesses that employ lots of people. One would hope that providing a fertile environment for new business would increase bread-winner, high-income employment.

3. I hope that the government will reign in the teachers unions by letting citizens have vouchers to put their kids in schools that they know are good.

Educational vouchers will help two very different segments of the student population. It will help inner city children get an education that will allow them the opportunity to get out of poverty. Secondly, It will help the best and brightest students not be dragged down by teaching to the bottom of the class (hence neglected) so that the US does not have to depend on better educated immigrants. Competition might even make the existing public schools better.

4. I hope that the promises to pay excessive social benefits will be reduced to manageable levels.

The ABA and the AMA are causing the cost of medicine to be onerous. The US needs a single payer health system with federal regulation of doctor qualifications and pay. This will involve tort reform so that doctors are not sued excessively. Further, I think that the US should limit the amount paid to keep a person alive, especially if the amount involved exceeds the person's total lifetime earnings..

5. I hope that the United States withdraws itself from being the world's policeman.

The reason for this is economic and my post The World Situation Today
 tells why. In short this policing is too expensive and puts the US at a competitive disadvantage relative to the third world.

I believe that all of these items might be dealt with by a Republican government. This may or may not happen. On the other hand there are many detrimental actions a religious right government might do that I think could be harmful.

The coming change in the course of US and possibly world history is truly a Black Swan.
    
Last updated November 12, 2016
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