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MORE ON TRUMP'S WIN
  Karl Arnold Belser
16 December 2016



i have been trying to understand the significance of Trump's win as the next president of the United States. See my initial reaction to the win in my post Trump as a Black Swan.

I was completely wrong in thinking that Trump's win would mean that the stock market would go down. It has risen enormously over what I considered to be a very expensive market (high CAPE). I have responded to this rise by selling several positions to realize capital gains. I hope that I will be able to reinvest this money in the future after the market realizes that any Trump policy will take a long time for Congress to approve and subsequently have an effect. In the mean time I will wait.

Trump's cabinet post nominations clearly show that he intends to reduce regulation, improve the US infrastructure, renegotiate trade agreements and Deal in a constructive manner with Russia. Recall that  in my post The world Situation Today I point out that Russia is the only significant threat the the United States and that an effective US policy would be to withdraw from being the world's policeman and become more nationalistic. This geopolitical strategy appears to be exactly what Trump intends to do. Hence I am optimistic about the near future.  

I read the book Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and a Culture in Crisis by J.D. Vance to try to understand  the White Working Class (WWC) that brought Donald trump to office. I summarized the issues facing the black community in my post Comments on Gun Violence, but I was unaware that parts of the white population are experiencing great pain too. See the Atlantic article The Original Underclass.

Further I read the book Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging which claims that the difficulty returning soldiers have in reentering society is a sign of social decay. Robert Putnam had previously pointed out in his book Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community that the US has very little social capital compared to past times. The lack of social capital suggests that the rich liberals on the east and west coasts that vote democratic and who are doing very well financially have no awareness or sympathy for the plight of fly-over America. I would say that  the Democratic party has lost touch with its political base.

I am afraid that the people who voted for Trump were blindly voting for CHANGE. They had nothing to gain by voting for  business as usual. However I have seen no evidence that Trump knows how to create employment for the WWC or the black community.

The New Yorker article Our Automated Future tells the real story. Not only are the WWC and blacks not going to get jobs but that maybe half of the currently working population will become unemployed.

My assessment of the long term future is that of extreme uncertainty. 
    
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